Home Price Gains Are Thriving, Propelled by Ongoing Job Growth

Propelled by ongoing job growth, December 2023 saw continued home price gains, according to the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for the month. 

Annual single-family home price growth continued its slight upward trend this past December to 5.5%, which is the highest rate of appreciation since January of last year. Northeastern states led the way, with Rhode Island at 13.3%, and no states or districts experienced year-over-year home price losses for the first time since 2022.

Since the beginning of 2012, home prices have documented annual gains year-over-year, and a thriving job market remains a key factor in driving mortgage performance and housing demand.

Key takeaways:

  • In 2023, the average HPI gain was 3.9%, which is down from 14.5% in 2022—and the same as the 2019 annual average.
  • Single-family home prices nationwide—including distressed sales—increased by 5.5% year-over-year in December 2023. 
  • In December, there was a 0.1% decrease in home prices from November.
  • Annual appreciation of detached properties was 5.7% in December—1.1 percentage point higher than attached properties at 4.6%.
  • CoreLogic predicts annual U.S. home price gains slowing to 2.8% in December 2024.
  • Of the country’s 20 metro areas studied, Miami had the highest year over-year home price increase at 10.7% in December.

What the experts say:

“Last winter’s mortgage rate surge impacted seasonal home price changes in many markets and suggests that annual gains may have reached the cycle peak and will level off in the coming months,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “But while appreciation is projected to slow, home prices will continue to extend to new highs entering the typically busy spring home-buying season. Also, while the recent dip in mortgage rates help improve some affordability challenges, additional rate declines may not arrive until the second half of 2024.

“The 2024 home-buying season should enjoy a boost because of pent-up demand, as well as a robust job market and wage growth,” Hepp continued. “Geographic patterns in price gains continued to favor housing markets in the Northeast and the South, especially those that remain more affordable and have lagged in home price increases over the past couple of years.”

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