Since November, Democrats have been trying to understand how they could possibly have lost an election to the likes of Donald Trump. But it’s not just Trump and the United States. Several key elements of the progressive-liberal policy agenda are in retreat in developed economies as voters and elected officials turn to more reasonable, practical and financially sustainable policies.
Here are three key components of the progressive agenda that are now being spurned.
Open borders. Illegal immigration has roiled U.S. politics for years, but in the election it “surged to the top of the most important problem list,” according to Gallup, even as Democrats both defended the illegal immigrant surge and went to extremes to argue it wasn’t happening. But the U.S. wasn’t alone.
A recent report from the Center for Migration Studies says, “The European Union (EU), as well as individual European countries, have in the last several years launched several initiatives to prevent asylum-seekers from reaching their shores.” Those candidates campaigning for immigration clampdowns gained seats in this year’s European Parliament elections.
Reuters says concerns over immigration and asylum policies were high on the list of the EU’s five biggest countries by population: “Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland — plus Sweden.” As a result, political parties pushing immigration reform made gains in several EU countries:
- Austria’s Freedom Party won the largest share of votes in the country’s last election;
- In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally almost won a majority of seats;
- In 2023, Dutch politician Geert Wilders’ Party of Freedom won the largest share of seats in the country’s House of Representatives;
- Germany’s the Alternative for Germany party has been winning more elections — a notable change since the country has for decades been very open to immigration as a type of penance for its World War II atrocities; and
- Giorgia Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party shifted Italy to the right in 2022.
The green energy transition. Developed economies in Europe and the U.S. under Democratic administrations have made transitioning to clean energy more of a mandate than a goal. They have taken major steps, both politically and financially, to implement the net-zero economy — where greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere equal the amount being removed. That’s changing.
As Wall Street Journal columnist Joseph C. Strenberg writes, “2025 may be the year net zero dies. Such a development isn’t inevitable, but what was once described as ‘the climate crisis’ is morphing into the climate-crisis crisis as voters lose patience with the project and grow less shy about saying so.”
He points out that Britain’s Labour Party government is starting to “backtrack on its green-electricity pledges.” And German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left collation has collapsed, forcing him to call for new elections. According to Sternberg, “His government couldn’t agree on how to continue paying ruinous net-zero subsidies, and voters face mounting job losses, including in the automobile industry.”
One of the major problems is that green electricity costs much more than fossil-fuel produced energy. That means some consumers are paying much more for electricity — even as wind and solar power are less reliable — and they are pushing back.
And then there’s the electric vehicle issue. Both the U.S. under Biden and other countries are trying to push consumers into buying EVs. That may work in autocratic China, but it hasn’t in the U.S. and several EU countries. And voters are letting politicians know about their dissatisfaction by the only mechanism politicians understand: elections.
Transgender youth. The trans issue in the November election wasn’t about adults who transition — they’re old enough to make their choices and live with them — but about children, along with biological males playing in women’s sports. Most Americans oppose both, and the issue played a role in some voters’ decisions.
But Europe is also having second thoughts. Forbes reports, “Increasingly, European nations are adopting a more cautious approach to gender-affirming care among minors.” And that shift began a year before the release of the Cass Report in England, which raised several red flags about pushing gender-affirming care on minors.
Some Democrats recognized the political shift and are speaking out against males participating in women’s sports. But progressive Democrats, including President Biden, frequently reaffirmed their support for “gender-affirming care” for minors and for biological men participating in women’s sports, claiming it’s the civil rights issue of our day.
However, Democrats may begin to back off their support once juries begin deciding the lawsuits filed against health care facilities and providers that promoted transgender care.
Those are three progressive policies where the voter pushback isn’t just national but international. If Democrats want to identify the culprit behind their November loss, they need to start with their own policies.
Merrill Matthews is a public policy and political analyst and the co-author of “On the Edge: America Faces the Entitlements Cliff.” Follow him on X@MerrillMatthews.
