The House GOP’s budget resolution could be in jeopardy of not clearing the full chamber amid concerns from moderates over likely cuts to social safety net programs — particularly Medicaid — with a handful undecided on whether they will support the key measure.
Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) — both of whom represent districts with a significant percentage of Medicaid recipients — told The Hill that they are withholding support from the budget resolution as they seek more information on the severity of the cuts and how they could impact their constituents.
And they are not alone.
“There’s at least double digits of people who are severely concerned,” Valadao said. “And I think as people start to understand the specifics of how it’s going tos affect their districts, I imagine that number grows.”
Those worries are sure to raise alarm bells for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his leadership team — including Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) — who are looking to push the resolution through the chamber and kick-start the process to pass President Trump’s domestic policy agenda as early as the week of Feb. 24, when the House returns.
Republicans can only afford to lose one vote if all members are present and the entire Democratic caucus opposes the measure, which is expected. At the current moment, key lawmakers say the resolution could be doomed to fail.
“As of right now I think it’s in jeopardy of failing,” Valadao said.
“I don’t know that the resolution passes,” Malliotakis echoed. “I think that there are enough of us who are concerned about the arbitrary number that was thrown out there for Medicaid, that the resolution may not pass the floor.”
While the worries appear to be more pronounced among moderates, some conservatives have also raised concerns about the trajectory of the reconciliation process. One House Republican who is on the whip team told The Hill that two conservatives reported Friday that they were undecided on the measure.
“I know a bunch of people are whipping undecided because they want to let leadership know that if these cuts hurt people they aren’t doing them,” the lawmaker said.
That narrative jives with the sentiment described by Valadao, who said, “I think there’s a lot of people in pretty conservative districts that this has a really negative impact on their districts and their states.”
“I think there’s a lot more people concerned than just moderates,” he added.
The pessimistic outlook surrounding the budget resolution became apparent less than 24 hours after the House Budget Committee advanced the measure in a party-line, 21-16 vote, sending it to the full chamber for consideration.
Republicans are looking to advance Trump’s legislative agenda using the budget reconciliation process, which would allow the party to circumvent Democratic opposition in the Senate. The first step in the reconciliation process is approving a budget resolution.
The budget resolution unveiled by House Republicans this week outlines a $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts across committees with a target of $2 trillion, a $4.5 trillion cap on the deficit impact of the Republicans’ plan to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, and $300 billion in additional spending for the border and defense. It also increases the debt limit by $4 trillion.
On the spending cuts front, the measure sets an $880 billion floor for the Energy and Commerce Committee, which has jurisdiction over Medicaid. That figure — the largest of any panel — signaled that Republicans would likely go after Medicaid to reach the threshold, a plan that lawmakers are openly acknowledging.
“There’s only one place you can go, and that’s Medicaid. That’s where the money is,” Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Idaho), who sits on the Energy and Commerce Committee. “There’s others, don’t get me wrong, but if you’re gonna get to $900 billion, something has to be reformed on the Medicaid front.”
Malliotakis said she is worried about the committee potentially lowering the the portion of Medicaid the federal government covers for the traditional population, which could generate up to $387 billion, or capping Medicaid spending on a per capita basis, which could generate $900 billion in savings per year. She did, however, note that she would be on board with instituting work requirements for the program and removing non-U.S. citizens as beneficiaries.
In 2023, 26.8 percent of Malliotakis’s constituents in New York’s 11th Congressional District had Medicaid coverage, according to Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy.
“To make up $880 billion, I need more clarity on how they’re going to make up that entire number and how that could potentially affect beneficiaries before I move forward in this process,” the New York Republican said. “And I’ve expressed that with the Speaker, with the whip, and we’ll see if we get more answers.”
Additionally, Malliotakis raised concerns about the $4.5 trillion cap on deficit increases that the Ways and Means Committee will have to abide by to enact Trump’s tax agenda. Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), the chair of the panel, has noted that just implementing a 10-year extension of the expiring provisions in the 2017 tax cuts would cost more than $4.7 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a number that exceeds the budget resolution instructions — and does not include Trump’s other tax demands, including no taxes on tips or Social Security.
Included in the tax portion of the package will be an effort by Republicans to increase the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap, which is a key ask of Trump and several GOP lawmakers who represent high-tax blue states. Many of those members have said they will not support the final package if there is not substantial SALT relief.
Asked if the $4.5 trillion figure provides enough room for reasonable SALT relief, Malliotakis, a member of the SALT Caucus, responded: “There better be.”
Adding to the concerns, Republicans on the Budget Committee adopted an amendment to the budget resolution Thursday night that would require the committee chair to lower deficit increase allowances for the tax portion if the $2 trillion in cuts to mandatory spending is not reached, meaning the allowance for tax cuts and other priorities would be curtailed.
The language, crafted by hard-line conservatives and GOP leadership, was key to securing support for the resolution among House Freedom Caucus members who sit on the panel.
Malliotakis called the provision “ridiculous.”
“It boxes us in and I think it limits our ability to deliver on President Trump’s agenda and the tax relief for the middle class,” she said.
Other lawmakers, meanwhile, are firing off warning shots about being pushed into complicated corners.
“I ran for Congress under a promise of always doing what is best for the people of Northeastern Pennsylvania. If a bill is put in front of me that guts the benefits my neighbors rely on, I will not vote for it,” Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), a first-term lawmaker who flipped a blue district in November, wrote on the social platform X. “Pennsylvania’s Eighth District chose me to advocate for them in Congress. These benefits are promises that were made to the people of NEPA and where I come from, people keep their word.”
It is not, however, all bad news for Johnson and GOP leadership. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), who represents a purple district on Long Island, told The Hill on Friday that he will support the budget resolution, calling it an “easy vote” while signaling that the hard part will come when lawmakers have to craft the measure.
“This document doesn’t change anything, it merely allows for a second step, and there’s no reason right now to get worked up over the first step,” he said. “When we see substance on step two, that’s when there’ll be a real time to fight and to haggle. Just now is, now’s not the time.”
Johnson and leadership, to be sure, have been clear-eyed about the lengthy effort it will take to clear the reconciliation bill, which has historically been a heavy lift, while remaining optimistic that the party will get the job done.
“The Budget Committee will mark up the resolution that will kick-start the reconciliation process and it will go on in earnest for the next several weeks,” Johnson told NewsNation’s Leland Vittert in an interview earlier this week. “You’ll hear a lot of debate and discussion and deliberation about how to deliver that, but we’ll get it done. We will find the equilibrium point that makes it all work.”
The path to that point, however, is sure to get messy, with Republicans making it clear that they have no plans to rubber-stamp any legislation.
“Right now I’m in a, we’ll see,” Malliotakis said. “I need some assurances and some clarity to move forward.”
Tobias Burns contributed.
