Republicans made inroads in New York and New Jersey this election, spurring hopes that the party could further erode Democrats’ grip on states seen as deep-blue bastions.
Vice President Harris won New Jersey and New York by far slimmer margins than President Biden in 2020. He won New Jersey by 15 points and New York by 23 points. In 2024, Harris carried each state by 5 points.
In New York City and surrounding counties, Trump made significant gains, winning precincts in Queens and Manhattan that have been solidly blue for decades. Across both states, Asian American, Hispanic and Black voters all cast ballots for Harris but at significantly lower margins than they did for Biden.
“We saw historic numbers for Republicans in New York, and that’s really something we can build upon,” said David Laska, spokesperson for the New York GOP.
Republicans in both states view Harris’s weak performance as an opportunity to advance ahead of the potentially competitive New Jersey governor’s race and the New York mayoral race.
“They’re not focused on economic issues and social issues and energy mandates, but the trend matters because Republicans have their best shot after two terms of Governor Murphy and a Democrat making everything more expensive,” said New Jersey GOP strategist Jeanette Hoffman.
Media host Mike Spadea and 2021 GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli have already declared on the Republican side.
Democrats in both states have criticized the national party for not focusing on the economy or immigration, pointing to strong congressional elections, including Democrats flipping three seats in New York and hanging on to all of their seats in New Jersey while also electing Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) to the Senate.
“’It’s the economy, stupid’ was true this time around, and it would have helped for [Harris] to have come out much sooner and have a greater amount of time to campaign. She should have directly spoken to issues at the top of mind on voters,” said state Sen. Jessica Ramos (D-N.Y.), who is running for New York City mayor next year.
According to Democratic officials and strategists, each of the three New York candidates spent time focusing on the economy and immigration, which helped them run ahead of Harris in their districts.
Ramos said Harris spent too much time “courting voters in the middle and not activating her base” and took “New York for granted.”
Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) said Democrats also ran weak on immigration, not providing a case against Trump’s plans to deal with undocumented immigrants in New York and New Jersey.
“Since 2022 we’ve seen an overwhelming wave of migration whose impact was found not only at the border, but in cities like New York, whose shelter system and social safety and municipal finances have been completely overwhelmed,” said Torres. “We know from the polling that there was widespread outrage over the migrant crisis, and in my view, that there was political malpractice on the part of the president in waiting two years before issuing an executive order regulating migration at the border.”
“She took New York for granted,” Ramos added. “The Democratic Party should do a better job of dispatching Latino surrogates because it was just a little too high-brow at times. … The party invested heavily in AAPI outreach as well in New York, but the same could not be said for Latino communities.”
Lawrence Levy, executive dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, said Democrats need to consider why voters of color are leaving the Democratic Party “before it is too late.”
“If they don’t take stock of some of the reasons and the trends that they’ve been seeing the last three years among minority voters in particular, maybe making a terrible mistake that could cost them down the road in a statewide race, in the level of control of the Legislature and even in the upcoming mayoral race,” said Levy.
However, Leroy Jones, chair of the New Jersey Democratic Party, said Democrats have learned from the election and will focus on economic messaging during the 2025 gubernatorial race in New Jersey.
“I think our messaging this time around was not as direct because oftentimes we try to be the nice party and not speak to the harsh realities that many were facing,” Jones said. “I think during the governor’s race, candidates will actually speak to quality of life and affordability and making New Jersey a place people can retire and live in comfortably.”
The campaign is already in full swing, with Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka and Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) all having declared their candidacies. Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) is also expected to run.
