The annual H-1B visa petition filing season began on April 1, and demand will certainly far exceed supply. If the past is any guide, then more than 20,000 employers will file hundreds of thousands of registrations hoping to secure approval to submit petitions to sponsor one or more foreign nationals for their businesses.
Only 85,000 H-1B visas are allocated annually, and they largely go to specialty-occupation workers, many of whom are graduates of U.S. institutions. Of this total, 65,000 visas are open to all candidates, and 20,000 are reserved for foreign nationals with a master’s degree or higher from a U.S. university.
There were more than 170 million people working in the U.S. in January 2025, so these highly skilled workers reflect only one-half of one percent of the workforce, and they are all paid the prevailing wage or actual market wage, whichever is higher.
Additionally, a 2022 report found that between 2003 and 2021, the median wage of H-1B workers grew by 52 percent. During the same period, the median wage of all U.S. workers increased by 39 percent. Which is to say, they are not cheap replacement workers, undercutting Americans’ wages.
H-1B holders contribute to the U.S. economy and have helped virtually every industry innovate. They are doctors, technology professionals, engineers, professors, accountants, financial analysts, researchers, geneticists, quantum physicists, data scientists and so much more.
Many of these H-1B skilled workers are at the forefront of innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence that will be vital if the U.S. is to retain its dominance in information-technology development.
Indeed, in a Jan. 23 executive order, the Trump administration acknowledged the vital role that AI technologies will play for the U.S., stating that “with the right government policies, we can solidify our position as the global leader in AI and secure a brighter future for all Americans.”
Further, research has routinely found positive impacts of the H-1B visa program on U.S. labor demand. For example, two recent studies found that increases in the presence of H-1B workers in an occupation are associated with a decrease in the unemployment rate within that occupation.
In addition, another recent study found that restrictions on and higher denial rates for H-1B visas may lead some U.S. multinational corporations to increase employment in their overseas operations and decrease the number of jobs they offer in the U.S.
A 2022 study also found strong correlations between the presence of H-1B workers in a sector and the number of patents filed. A disproportionate number come from those sectors and states where the H-1Bs are concentrated.
Indian nationals account for the largest group of H-1B visa beneficiaries, which is why the visa program is often a discussion point in bilateral meetings between the U.S. and India, but the visas have been issued to individuals of almost every nationality.
Unfortunately, the H-1B visa program is attacked every year. Critics claim that the program displaces U.S. citizen workers and depresses wages despite documented ongoing worker shortages and high wage levels in all the major occupational categories filled by H-1B holders.
The evidence shows that they are highly skilled workers who command market (and in many cases, above-market) wages, and whose contributions help not only their employers, but also their employers’ clients and the economy as a whole create and maintain jobs.
The current expectation is that both the Trump administration and Congress will attempt to impose new restrictions on the H-1B program. Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), chair and ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, have sought to impose significant new restrictions on the program for decades.
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who chairs the House Judiciary Committee, has indicated that congressional Republicans will try to move legislation to overhaul existing laws and increase the flow of immigrants into the United States with expertise in science, technology and engineering.
During his first term, President Donald Trump sought to restructure and restrict the H-1B program significantly by prioritizing H-1B registrations by wage level, increasing required wages above the market rate, and increasing fees, among other changes.
Federal courts blocked almost all of these proposed changes. Nevertheless, the “Buy American, Hire American” executive order of 2017 led to increased scrutiny of H-1B petitions, denial rates approaching 20 percent, and even higher rates of requests for further evidence in 2018. This created tremendous uncertainty and costs for many businesses.
There was a marked turn in messaging about the H-1B program earlier this year, but one would need to scratch below the surface to understand what it actually means.
Following billionaire Trump adviser Elon Musk’s praise of the program, Trump said, “I’ve been a believer in H-1B. I have used it many times. It’s a great program.” This is after Trump’s support during his first term, when the administration effectively sought to pick winners and losers by rewriting the rules to advantage certain types of businesses and petitions in the application cycle.
The businesses, hospitals, schools and other enterprises that could lose out if the expected attempts to restrict the program prove successful are in nearly every state of the country. If restrictions are put in place, then over time it could lead to shortages of technologists to develop and deploy the next big development, engineers to innovate in factories, skilled language and science teachers in schools and nephrologists in local communities.
The United States faces cutthroat competition among major countries to acquire high-skilled talent; if it cannot attract and retain skilled foreign labor, the workers will go elsewhere. This is critical as the U.S. workforce faces a growing “skills gap” that is expected to continue widening as the decade progresses. The H-1B program helps keep and grow jobs in the United States.
The Trump administration and Congress should carefully consider the consequences of any changes before moving ahead. The H-1B visa program has proven to be highly successful for attracting and retaining much-needed skilled labor while protecting the interests of U.S. workers.
Jeff Lande is a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center and president of the Lande Group. Rami Fakhoury is the founder and managing director of Fakhoury Global Immigration USA.